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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-14T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30073/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E40 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-14T10:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-17T08:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-17T01:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30080/1
Model Inputs:
2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=859.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2024-04-14T14:48Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-17T01:06Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =27.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-17T01:35Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T00:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 37.67 hour(s)
Difference: 7.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-04-15T19:15Z

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